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Increasing worries are present over the potential of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that efforts to validate "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended armed struggle followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a move that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

However ties have subsequently deteriorated anew.